Growth plan for Koia, 6 Oct 2026
Scale spend. Hold CAC.
Koia is in over 40,000 retail stores, but its Elite + Creatine pages show one review each. The plan turns that reach into tested ads and creators online, and protects one number: a target CAC of $22.56. Proposed, not promised.
- Target CAC
- $22.56
- New ads a week at peak
- 20
- Creators live by week six
- 10
- Test spend, six weeks
- $24,000
Contents
10 chapters, then the gates and every number’s source.
01 The number
Hold $22.56 CAC while Elite Chocolate sells at $49.99
The number is $22.56, the guard line under a $37.60 ceiling. Ceiling = average order of $47 × margin of 40% × (1 + 1) repeat orders. I'd rather stop at the guard line than find the ceiling late. Those inputs are guesses until Koia's real data replaces them.
Protect
Target CAC: $22.56 on a first purchase
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $47 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $37.60. Guard line = 0.6 × $37.60 = $22.56. Across the ranges: $20.99 to $114.74.
Three moves
- Kill losing ads early, one variable per test, before they eat spend.
- Scale only the concepts that clear the $22.56 guard line.
- Report daily CAC so a drift shows up in a day, not at quarter end.
- retail stores nationwide, Whole Foods and Target among them
- 40,000
- Published
- of protein per serving in Koia Elite shakes, as the brand states it
- 32g
- Published
- bundle saving, shown as "BUNDLE & SAVE 15% OFF"
- 15%
- Published
02 Variety
Every Koia ad carries one reason to buy, not five
Each ad concept has to carry one reason to buy: protein without the chalk, low sugar, the Performance Duo bundle, or a recipe made with Koia powder. Mixing reasons muddies the read, so each concept gets one and is tested alone.
| Reason to buy | Proof you already have | Ads (proposed) |
|---|---|---|
| 32g plant protein + creatine | 32g of plant-powered protein with creatine | 5 |
| Not that chalky stuff | Plant protein, but not that chalky stuff. | 4 |
| Sweet without all the sugar | sweet without all the sugar, creamy without the dairy | 3 |
| 100% vegan | Yes, all of our products are 100% vegan. | 3 |
| Bundle and save | BUNDLE & SAVE 15% OFF | 1 |
| Customer love letters | YOU WILL NOT REGRET BUYING THIS PROTEIN. I LOVE THE TASTE. | 1 |
| Free shipping | Free Shipping | 1 |
| Total | The ad concepts tab | 18 |
Each row is a reason to buy that the brand already has proof for. The count is how many of the ads carry it: a reason with a single ad is a bet, not a pattern, and the next batch of concepts moves toward the reasons that win.
03 Disturbances
Seven risks, including a five-star score built on one review
| Disturbance | Likelihood | Impact | Owner | Gate (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elite + Creatine pages show one review each, so ad clicks meet thin proof | High | Med | Your team | Both Elite + Creatine pages show more than one review by the end of week two |
| Shipping covers only the contiguous 48 states and Washington DC; ads outside it waste spend | Med | Med | Me | Geo targeting is limited to the contiguous 48 states before any ad goes live |
| Friday orders after 11am Central ship the next week, slowing delivery on weekend ad traffic | Med | Low | Your team | Friday-afternoon ads pause or carry a delivery note until packing times are confirmed |
| Event tracking is not clean, so CAC reads wrong and winners get killed | High | High | Both | Purchase events match store orders in a daily check before week two ends |
| Health wording in ads drifts beyond Koia's own claims | Med | High | Me | Every ad line matches the claims sheet; one unmatched line blocks launch |
| Margin and repeat-order guesses are wrong, so the $37.60 ceiling moves | Med | High | Both | Week one replaces the guesses with Koia's real figures and the ceiling is reset then |
| Creators arrive slower than two a week and the ramp stalls | Med | Med | Me | If fewer than the planned creators are live by week three, the ramp pauses |
Scores are my read from outside the company, re-scored in week one with your data. Each risk has one owner and one gate that can be checked with a number, so nobody has to argue about whether it happened.
04 The ceiling
The ceiling is $37.60; the guard line sits at $22.56
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Average order | $47 (range $39.99–$84.99) | Assumption Range from the site product prices (Published); the midpoint is a guess |
| Gross margin | 40% (range 35–45%) | Assumption Replace in week one |
| Repeat orders after the first | 1 (range 0.5–2) | Assumption Replace with cohort data in week one |
| Margin per customer, all orders | $37.60 | Calculated Average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders) |
| Guard line for CAC | $22.56 | Calculated 0.6 × the margin per customer |
The math, with the assumed lines
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $47 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $37.60. Guard line = 0.6 × $37.60 = $22.56. Across the ranges: $20.99 to $114.74.
Range across the assumptions: $21 to $115.
The $47 average order, 40% margin and repeat orders are guesses. The $37.60 ceiling and $22.56 guard line follow from them. Week one replaces each guess with Koia's own numbers.
The ceiling is a range, not one number: the most a new customer can cost before shipping and packaging, which I do not have. Replace the guessed lines with yours and every figure below recalculates.
05 Test ramp
Six weeks of tests cost $24,000, starting at 12 ads
| Week | New ads × budget / ad (proposed) | Weekly test spend | Cumulative | Creators posting | CAC target (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $3,000 | 0 | $23 |
| 2 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 2 | $23 |
| 3 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $10,000 | 4 | $23 |
| 4 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $14,000 | 6 | $23 |
| 5 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $19,000 | 8 | $23 |
| 6 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $24,000 | 10 | $23 |
Week one and week two each run 12 ads at $250, so $3,000 each. Weeks three and four run 12–20 ads, $4,000 each. Weeks five and six run 20 ads, $5,000 each. Cumulative: $24,000 of tests. Proposed; losers are killed early.
The math. Week 1: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 2: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 3: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 4: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 5: 20 × $250 = $5,000; Week 6: 20 × $250 = $5,000. Total $24,000 (96 ads × $250). A range such as 12–20 counts as its midpoint.
Weeks one and two test what the brand already has, rewritten per reason to buy. From week three, creator videos enter paid only after they beat their own account median. A range of new ads counts as its midpoint in the spend column.
06 Volume
More Koia concepts, more winners: 20 to 80 concepts
Winners drive spend. At 20 concepts I assume 2 winners; at 80, 8 winners adding $72,000. Hit rate and spend per winner are assumptions. More concepts means more shots at a lower CAC.
| Concepts tested / month | Hit rate (assumed) | New winners / month | Spend each winner holds (assumed) | Added spend at target CAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 10% | 2 | $300 / day | $18,000 / month |
| 40 | 10% | 4 | $300 / day | $36,000 / month |
| 60 | 10% | 6 | $300 / day | $54,000 / month |
| 80 | 10% | 8 | $300 / day | $72,000 / month |
The math. 20 concepts × 10% = 2 winners × $300 × 30 days = $18,000 a month; 40 concepts × 10% = 4 winners × $300 × 30 days = $36,000 a month; 60 concepts × 10% = 6 winners × $300 × 30 days = $54,000 a month; 80 concepts × 10% = 8 winners × $300 × 30 days = $72,000 a month.
The hit rate and the spend each winner holds are placeholders. The first thirty days of tests replace them with real numbers, and the table is recalculated the same day.
07 Allocation
$100,000 split across four jobs, tests first
- Test spend on Meta, first six weeks
- $25,000
- 25%
- Scaling winners that hold the guard line
- $45,000
- 45%
- Creator pay and product
- $20,000
- 20%
- Landing pages and tracking fixes
- $10,000
- 10%
This splits the $100,000 budget to allocate (Proposed); tests are $24,000 of it, and the larger share waits for winners that hold $22.56.
The math. 25% × $100,000 = $25,000; 45% × $100,000 = $45,000; 20% × $100,000 = $20,000; 10% × $100,000 = $10,000. Sum 100% = $100,000.
This split is a proposal. It moves toward scaling as winners prove out, and toward testing when fatigue shows.
08 Channels
Meta first, then channels that echo 40,000 retail stores
| Channel | Open when (proposed) | Why wait |
|---|---|---|
| Meta | Day one: bundle and shake concepts are tested here first | Fastest read on which Koia hook lowers CAC |
| TikTok | When creator videos clear the guard line on Meta | Recipe and post-workout formats from creators suit the platform |
| YouTube Shorts | When a recipe video using Koia powder wins on Meta | Same footage reused, with no new creator cost |
| After first orders arrive and repeat orders can be read | Repeat orders on shakes decide payback | |
| Store locator | When online ads lift searches for where to buy | Koia is in over 40,000 retail stores; some shoppers prefer shelves |
A channel opens when its condition is true, not when the calendar says so. Until then the budget stays where the CAC is earned.
09 Payback
A $49.99 shake pays back only if repeat orders happen
Payback is the real constraint. At CAC $10 the first order leaves $27.60. At $25 it takes repeat orders and leaves $12.60. At $40 it never pays back and ends $2.40 short; at $55 it ends $17.40 short. Past the guard line we stop, however good the ad looks.
Cumulative margin per customer, order by order, before CAC: $18.80, $37.60.
| CAC (scenario) | First-order margin | Year-one margin | Left after CAC | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10 | $18.80 | $37.60 | $27.60 | First order |
| $25 | $18.80 | $37.60 | $12.60 | After repeat orders |
| $40 | $18.80 | $37.60 | −$2.40 | Never: stop |
| $55 | $18.80 | $37.60 | −$17.40 | Never: stop |
The math. CAC $10: $37.60 − $10 = $27.60 left; pays back: First order; CAC $25: $37.60 − $25 = $12.60 left; pays back: After repeat orders; CAC $40: $37.60 − $40 = −$2.40 left; pays back: Never: stop; CAC $55: $37.60 − $55 = −$17.40 left; pays back: Never: stop.
Read each row left to right: the margin of the first purchase, the margin over the whole horizon, what is left after CAC, and the purchase on which the CAC is earned back. A scenario that never pays back is a stop, not a test.
10 Scope
Scope covers ads and creators, not Free Shipping or FedEx
Covers
- Ad concepts and tests on Meta for Koia's shakes, sodas, powders and bundles
- Creator briefs, pay proposals and the hook library
- A claims sheet built from Koia's own wording
- Daily CAC, weekly learnings, monthly cohort payback
Doesn’t
- Event tracking build: I spec it, your team implements it
- Product, formulas, pricing and the Free Shipping terms
- Retail and distributor deals across the stores you sell in
- Health claims beyond Koia's own wording
What this plan covers is what I can change inside the ad account and the creator program. Everything outside it is named on the right so nobody assumes it is handled.
Gates, written before spend, so stopping isn’t a negotiation.
| Day | Keep going if (proposed) | Stop or change if |
|---|---|---|
| Day 14 | Purchase tracking matches orders, at least two tests have a clean read, and no ad runs above the $37.60 ceiling | Tracking still off, or no test has a clean read |
| Day 30 | Winning concepts sit at or below $37.60 CAC and creators are live on plan toward ten | Every concept above $37.60 after a full test cycle |
| Day 60 | Winners hold CAC near the $22.56 guard line while spend rises | CAC above $37.60 for a full week at higher spend |
| Day 90 | Payback lands inside repeat orders at current CAC and new winners keep arriving | Cohort payback never arrives at current CAC |
Each gate is checked on its day with the numbers in the daily and weekly reports. If the stop condition is true, the spend stops and nothing renews until we talk.
What exists, what’s missing, and the order that’s forced.
| Piece | Exists today | Missing | Forced order |
|---|---|---|---|
| claims sheet | Own wording: "sweet without all the sugar" | One page of approved lines for every ad | 1st |
| creative | Bundle offer: Performance Duo $84.99, was $99.98 | Tested ad concepts around the bundle and shakes | 2nd |
| creators | A recipes page with protein powder recipes to film | A creator roster and briefs | 2nd |
| landing pages | Elite + Creatine pages with one review each | Pages built per ad concept, bundle first | 2nd |
| reporting | Store orders with Free Shipping on the offer | Daily CAC view and clean purchase events | Week 1 |
The order is forced on purpose: creative and creators come first because they are what moves CAC, and everything else waits for that data.
Every number, and where it came from.
| Figure | Where it came from | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 40,000 retail stores nationwide, Whole Foods and Target among them | https://drinkkoia.com/pages/store-locator | Fact |
| 32g of protein per serving in Koia Elite shakes, as the brand states it | https://drinkkoia.com/blogs/blog/why-30g-of-protein-is-essential-the-benefits-of-30g-of-protein-in-the-morning | Fact |
| 15% bundle saving, shown as "BUNDLE & SAVE 15% OFF" | https://drinkkoia.com/products/performance-duo | Fact |
| Product prices $39.99–$84.99 | product prices in the site product data (16 products), read 2026-10-05 | Fact |
| $47 average order · 40% margin · 1 repeat order | Placeholders, replaced in week one | Assumed |
| $22.56 target CAC | 0.6 of the $37.60 margin per customer | Calculated |
| $37.60 margin per customer | Price × (margin − discount), summed over the orders | Calculated |
| $24,000 of tests (96 ads × $250) | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one | Calculated |
| 0→10 creators in 6 weeks · 7 videos per creator a week | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one and the Creator engine | Proposed |
| $100,000 first budget split 25% / 45% / 20% / 10% | Danilo’s plan, re-set with the team in week one | Calculated |
| 10% hit rate · $300 a day per winner | Placeholders, replaced by the first 30 days of tests | Assumed |
| 303 creator videos a month at 10 creators | 10 creators × 7 videos a week × 52 ÷ 12 | Calculated |
| $5.74 per 1,000 views against a $1 target | Creator cost over the views the assumptions give | Calculated |
| $1,000 base pay · $50 bonus past 100,000 views | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
| 1,500 median views · 4% breakout (10×) · 0.5% viral (750,000) | Placeholders, replaced by the first month of posts | Assumed |
| Pay bands $300–$600, $500–$1,000, $800–$1,500 | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
Every figure on this page is listed here with where it came from. Fact means read on the site. Assumed and Proposed are Danilo’s own numbers, to be replaced in week one. Calculated is plain arithmetic on those, with the formula shown next to it.
Month one is where it starts.
Week one: I read Koia's real margin and repeat orders, write the claims sheet from your own wording, and brief the first two creators. The first twelve ads go live around the Performance Duo and Elite Chocolate. Proposed.
